Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose three points to 16 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for October, released today. This was the first improvement registered by the HMI in five months, and returns the index to a level last seen in June of this year.
"Builders are starting to see some flickers of interest among potential buyers, and are hopeful that this interest will translate to more sales in the coming months," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "However, because most builders still have no access to credit for building homes, there is a real concern that we will not be able to meet the pent-up demand when consumers are ready to get back in the market. This problem threatens to severely slow the housing and economic recovery."
"The new-homes market is finally moving past the lull that occurred when the home buyer tax credits expired and economic growth stalled this summer," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While challenges such as competition from foreclosures, inaccurate appraisal values, and general consumer uncertainty about the economy and job market continue to be major factors, builders have seen a slight increase in consumers who are considering a home purchase. The toughest obstacles really come down to financing – the scarcity of construction credit for builders along with tougher mortgage requirements for consumers."
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three of the HMI's component indexes registered gains in October. The index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to16, while the index gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose five points to 23 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose two points to 11.
Builder confidence also improved across every region in October. The South and West each posted four-point gains, to 18 and 12, respectively, while the Northeast and Midwest each posted single-point gains, to 17 and 13, respectively.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Housing Tax Incentives Benefit Younger Households Most
New research from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reveals that the benefits of housing-related tax deductions, such as the mortgage interest deduction, generally decline in value as individuals age. Using Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income (SOI) data, NAHB was able to report for the first time how various tax deductions are used by different age groups. The analysis demonstrates that the biggest beneficiaries are younger households, who typically have large mortgages, small amounts of equity in their homes and growing families.
“Opponents falsely argue that the deduction is only for the wealthy, but it is clear that the mortgage interest deduction is also of great value to younger homeowners,” said Robert Dietz, assistant vice president for Tax and Policy Issues for NAHB. “Any tampering with this deduction would have a disproportionate impact, as a share of household income, on younger homeowners who have relatively higher mortgage interest payments. These are households who have growing demand for homeownership due to marriages and children.”
The average mortgage interest deduction peaks for taxpayers in the 35 to under-45 age group, followed by the 18-to 34-aged taxpayers, and declines as the taxpayer gets older. According to the research, this occurs because the mortgage interest deduction peaks soon after the taxpayer moves from renting to homeownership, and declines over time as homeowners pay down existing mortgage debt and increase homeowner equity.
When examining the age distribution of those claiming the deduction for mortgage insurance, which is associated with homeowners making a downpayment of less than 20%, the analysis found that the largest share—59%—goes to those aged 18 to under-45.
The age-related pattern for the smaller tax deduction for local and state real estate taxes, however, differs slightly. Unlike the mortgage interest deduction, which declines in value as taxpayers age, the value of the real estate tax deduction increases as taxpayers age, primarily due to increases in home values as household income and wealth increases.
The report also shows that both housing deductions—for mortgage interest and real estate taxes—fall as a share of household income for older taxpayers. In contrast, the share of other non-housing deductions, such as the medical expense, charitable contribution, and investment interest expense deductions, rises for taxpayers who are 65 and older.
“Opponents falsely argue that the deduction is only for the wealthy, but it is clear that the mortgage interest deduction is also of great value to younger homeowners,” said Robert Dietz, assistant vice president for Tax and Policy Issues for NAHB. “Any tampering with this deduction would have a disproportionate impact, as a share of household income, on younger homeowners who have relatively higher mortgage interest payments. These are households who have growing demand for homeownership due to marriages and children.”
The average mortgage interest deduction peaks for taxpayers in the 35 to under-45 age group, followed by the 18-to 34-aged taxpayers, and declines as the taxpayer gets older. According to the research, this occurs because the mortgage interest deduction peaks soon after the taxpayer moves from renting to homeownership, and declines over time as homeowners pay down existing mortgage debt and increase homeowner equity.
When examining the age distribution of those claiming the deduction for mortgage insurance, which is associated with homeowners making a downpayment of less than 20%, the analysis found that the largest share—59%—goes to those aged 18 to under-45.
The age-related pattern for the smaller tax deduction for local and state real estate taxes, however, differs slightly. Unlike the mortgage interest deduction, which declines in value as taxpayers age, the value of the real estate tax deduction increases as taxpayers age, primarily due to increases in home values as household income and wealth increases.
The report also shows that both housing deductions—for mortgage interest and real estate taxes—fall as a share of household income for older taxpayers. In contrast, the share of other non-housing deductions, such as the medical expense, charitable contribution, and investment interest expense deductions, rises for taxpayers who are 65 and older.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
NAR Says Families Will Suffer if Foreclosure Freeze Continues
Thousands of first-time and move-up buyers who hoped to make a foreclosed property their new home now face uncertainty, anxiety and possibly remorse as they worry that closing on their desired property could be in jeopardy.
For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today. The moratoriums are needed, banks say, to review all of the foreclosures in their portfolios to make sure they’re in compliance with the law and that titles are clear.
NAR warned that a prolonged review process would have a damaging impact on many communities and hinder the nation’s economic recovery.
“As the leading advocate for homeownership issues, we understand that many lenders need a time-out to review their actions to ensure that homeowners are not improperly foreclosed on and that the lenders are following regulations and state laws. After that, the foreclosure process must resume quickly to return stability to families, the housing market and the economy,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates, Tucson, Ariz.
Over the past few months NAR has met with officials of top banks to discuss market issues. NAR urged banking leaders to seek resolution quickly through loan modifications and the short-sale process rather than through foreclosure. “We stand ready to help lenders develop better short-sale procedures,” Golder said.
“There are valid foreclosures that should move ahead quickly, and we shouldn’t lump them in with mortgages that are suspect. That would cause deep problems in an already fragile market and throw many families into uncertainty,” Golder said.
Golder said that she is receiving reports from Realtors® that the moratorium is already creating some anxiety among purchasers as transactions are being delayed and that some foreclosure listings are being removed from the market.
Compounding the problem is that the requirements for foreclosure vary by state, and practices to meet these requirements vary by firm. NAR is working with regulators, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency; and encouraging them to identify and quickly address process problems.
In a letter today to the U.S Treasury Department, the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, NAR stated the hope that banks would complete their foreclosure review expeditiously to assure that the rights of borrowers are protected and remove doubt that buyers will receive clear title to their purchase.
“NAR has long urged the lending industry to take every feasible action to keep families in their homes with a loan modification and, if that is not possible, to give them a ‘graceful exit’ through a short sale. These options are far better than a foreclosure, and nothing has driven this point home more clearly than the questions being raised about foreclosures. Lenders should place additional resources into processing loan modifications and short sales,” NAR wrote.
For many, the dream of homeownership could turn into agony if their home purchase is indefinitely delayed by a moratorium on foreclosures declared by some banks, the National Association of Realtors® said today. The moratoriums are needed, banks say, to review all of the foreclosures in their portfolios to make sure they’re in compliance with the law and that titles are clear.
NAR warned that a prolonged review process would have a damaging impact on many communities and hinder the nation’s economic recovery.
“As the leading advocate for homeownership issues, we understand that many lenders need a time-out to review their actions to ensure that homeowners are not improperly foreclosed on and that the lenders are following regulations and state laws. After that, the foreclosure process must resume quickly to return stability to families, the housing market and the economy,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates, Tucson, Ariz.
Over the past few months NAR has met with officials of top banks to discuss market issues. NAR urged banking leaders to seek resolution quickly through loan modifications and the short-sale process rather than through foreclosure. “We stand ready to help lenders develop better short-sale procedures,” Golder said.
“There are valid foreclosures that should move ahead quickly, and we shouldn’t lump them in with mortgages that are suspect. That would cause deep problems in an already fragile market and throw many families into uncertainty,” Golder said.
Golder said that she is receiving reports from Realtors® that the moratorium is already creating some anxiety among purchasers as transactions are being delayed and that some foreclosure listings are being removed from the market.
Compounding the problem is that the requirements for foreclosure vary by state, and practices to meet these requirements vary by firm. NAR is working with regulators, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency; and encouraging them to identify and quickly address process problems.
In a letter today to the U.S Treasury Department, the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, NAR stated the hope that banks would complete their foreclosure review expeditiously to assure that the rights of borrowers are protected and remove doubt that buyers will receive clear title to their purchase.
“NAR has long urged the lending industry to take every feasible action to keep families in their homes with a loan modification and, if that is not possible, to give them a ‘graceful exit’ through a short sale. These options are far better than a foreclosure, and nothing has driven this point home more clearly than the questions being raised about foreclosures. Lenders should place additional resources into processing loan modifications and short sales,” NAR wrote.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Will Foreclosure Freezes Fix the Housing Market?
MoneyWatch)—On Friday, Bank of America announced that it would suspend foreclosures in 23 states while it amended filed paperwork. That makes B of A the third major bank in two weeks to put its foreclosure process in limbo. Two days earlier J.P. Morgan Chase announced it would freeze foreclosures on more than 50,000 homes currently in receipt of a foreclosure filing. Last week, Ally Financial Inc. (the former GMAC Mortgage) also froze foreclosures.
All three banks have admitted to problems in the processing of foreclosures, including the use of so-called “robo-signatures,” employees who job it is tp solely sign foreclosure docs without reviewing the paperwork.
Today, Ohio’s Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner asked federal prosecutors to investigate foreclosure irregularities in her state. Ohio has been pushing lenders to do better. On September 17, Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray announced that the state court had affirmed its case and legal strategy of holding loan servicers accountable in the foreclosure crisis.
So will Chase’s and Ally’s foreclosure freeze ultimately fix the housing market? That’s one theory put forth in today’s New York Times. But, I’m not so sure. What will happen in the short run is that all of the banks will put a moratorium on the foreclosures. Law firms that have become foreclosures processing machines in places like Florida, will have a lot of extra time on their hands.
I suppose, in the best of all worlds, slowing down or freezing foreclosures might actually force lenders to take a harder look at ways they might keep folks in their homes, like doing more loan modifications. That would reduce the so-called “shadow inventory” and keep housing values from crashing again.
Again, that’s the best possible scenario. I think it’s too soon to tell. And, there’s a lot that’s going wrong with the economy right now (jobs, anyone?) which could complicate the view in any rose-colored glasses.
Right now, those who have Chase and GMAC on the top of their loans are getting a reprieve.
All three banks have admitted to problems in the processing of foreclosures, including the use of so-called “robo-signatures,” employees who job it is tp solely sign foreclosure docs without reviewing the paperwork.
Today, Ohio’s Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner asked federal prosecutors to investigate foreclosure irregularities in her state. Ohio has been pushing lenders to do better. On September 17, Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray announced that the state court had affirmed its case and legal strategy of holding loan servicers accountable in the foreclosure crisis.
So will Chase’s and Ally’s foreclosure freeze ultimately fix the housing market? That’s one theory put forth in today’s New York Times. But, I’m not so sure. What will happen in the short run is that all of the banks will put a moratorium on the foreclosures. Law firms that have become foreclosures processing machines in places like Florida, will have a lot of extra time on their hands.
I suppose, in the best of all worlds, slowing down or freezing foreclosures might actually force lenders to take a harder look at ways they might keep folks in their homes, like doing more loan modifications. That would reduce the so-called “shadow inventory” and keep housing values from crashing again.
Again, that’s the best possible scenario. I think it’s too soon to tell. And, there’s a lot that’s going wrong with the economy right now (jobs, anyone?) which could complicate the view in any rose-colored glasses.
Right now, those who have Chase and GMAC on the top of their loans are getting a reprieve.
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