Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 17.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 329,000 units in December, according to newly released figures from the U.S. Commerce Department. The big gain, though largely tied to an unexpectedly strong showing in the West, was a welcome boost at the end of a year that had the lowest total number of new-home sales on record (321,000) since the government began keeping track in 1963.
"After six very tough months, the housing market ended the year on an upbeat, with signs of stabilization beginning to take hold in many markets," said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. "That said, the nationwide inventory of new homes for sale is now at its thinnest level in more than 40 years. This is a sign that many builders still cannot obtain the credit they need to meet anticipated improvements in buyer demand in 2011."
"I read today's report as a promising sign that the new-home sales market is re-starting its long journey to a more normal pace after the lull that began in May," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "However, the very low inventory of new homes available for sale is concerning, because it means that the critical lack of acquisition, development and construction financing continues to pose a tremendous obstacle to medium- and small-sized builders across the country, thereby slowing the arrival of a true recovery and the jobs that could generate."
The majority of the increase in new-home sales this December was recorded in the West, which posted a remarkable 71.9 percent gain that could end up being somewhat revised in subsequent months. But gains of 3.2 percent and 1.8 percent were also recorded in the Midwest and South, respectively. The Northeast posted a 5.0 percent decline in new-home sales this December.
Acknowledging that sales in the West may have gotten a boost from contracts being signed ahead of costly building code changes going into effect in some states this January, Crowe noted that issuance of building permits was also up substantially in that region at the end of the year.
The inventory of new homes for sale fell to 191,000 units in December, the lowest number since January of 1968. This amounts to a historically slim 6.9-month supply at the current sales rate.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Research Shows Changing Market, Evolving Buyer Preferences for the 55+ Housing Market
A joint study by the 50+ Housing Council of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the MetLife Mature Market Institute shows the recession has made 55+ buyers more practical when selecting a new home. Design considerations have become less important, and financial concerns have become more prominent, according to the study.
Previous studies from these two organizations found that most 55+ buyers depended on home sale proceeds to finance a new purchase. The most recent data shows that option diminished during the economic downturn.
The study, “Housing Trends Update for the 55+ Market,” explores recently released housing data from the Census Bureau’s 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) on the 55+ demographic. The report focuses especially on households living in active adult communities, either age-qualified active adult communities where at least one resident must be age 55+, other non-age-qualified 55+ owner-occupied communities (not explicitly restricted to 55+ households but nevertheless occupied primarily by people age 55+), or age-restricted rental communities.
“By the year 2020, as Baby Boomers move into this age bracket, almost 45 percent of all U.S. households will include someone at least 55 years old,” said David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. “The number of those households seeking housing better suited to their changing needs will therefore rise dramatically.”
Crowe noted that about 54,000 housing starts are projected in 55+ communities this year, a 30% rise from estimated 2010 levels, but still relatively modest production. Starts in 55+ communities are projected to increase another 46% to roughly 79,000 housing units in 2012.
In 2009, only 55% of new age-qualified active adult home buyers reported that their down payment came from a previous home sale, significantly down from 100% of respondents in 2005 and 92% in 2007. In 2005 and 2007, no active adult community buyers reported having to tap cash or savings for a down payment. In 2009, 45% of the average buyer’s down payment came from cash or savings.
Further analysis reveals other interesting developments. While median prices for new 55+ homes remain lower than 2005’s peak, a look at average home prices shows a big difference between buyers in age-qualified active adult communities and other 55+ community buyers. Average prices for 55+ homes dropped in 2007 and partially rebounded in 2009. But prices for age-qualified communities more than bounced back; they set a record with an average price of $319,000. Buyers in that group were more affluent, with average incomes of more than $80,000 a year. Twenty-seven percent reported earning $100,000 or more compared to fewer than 5% of such buyers in 2001.
“Most 55+ consumers—those who chose to move and those who stay in their homes—report that they are happy with their homes and communities,” said Sandra Timmermann, Ed.D., director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute. “But those who did move to an age-qualified community—about 3%—reported the greatest satisfaction, rating their homes and communities at nine on a one-to-ten scale.”
The desire to be near family and friends is the mature mover’s overwhelming motivation, the report noted. The design, amenities and appearance of the residence and the community remain important, but less so than before the recession. Buyers who fall into the 55+ age range that are moving into rental homes, both multi-family and single-family, cited a desire for less expensive housing as second in importance to living near friends and family.
Those who are able to buy are getting much more for less. In 2009, more than half of 55+ buyers said they were moving into better homes, but fewer than half reported that their new homes cost more than the old ones.
“Proximity to work” was more important than in the past for those relocating to age-qualified, active adult communities—12% in 2009 versus 2% in 2001—underscoring the trend toward delayed retirement in this age group. There was also a reported increase in the share of 55+ single-family homeowners who say they work at home—which may be a trend noteworthy to home designers.
A small, but growing share of older households is taking advantage of the ability to convert some of their home equity into a reverse mortgage or home equity conversion mortgage. They tend to be older, single-person households with lower household income and longer housing tenure. Those with reverse or home equity conversion mortgages represented more than 241,000 households in 2009, a 54% increase since 2007.
Previous studies from these two organizations found that most 55+ buyers depended on home sale proceeds to finance a new purchase. The most recent data shows that option diminished during the economic downturn.
The study, “Housing Trends Update for the 55+ Market,” explores recently released housing data from the Census Bureau’s 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) on the 55+ demographic. The report focuses especially on households living in active adult communities, either age-qualified active adult communities where at least one resident must be age 55+, other non-age-qualified 55+ owner-occupied communities (not explicitly restricted to 55+ households but nevertheless occupied primarily by people age 55+), or age-restricted rental communities.
“By the year 2020, as Baby Boomers move into this age bracket, almost 45 percent of all U.S. households will include someone at least 55 years old,” said David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. “The number of those households seeking housing better suited to their changing needs will therefore rise dramatically.”
Crowe noted that about 54,000 housing starts are projected in 55+ communities this year, a 30% rise from estimated 2010 levels, but still relatively modest production. Starts in 55+ communities are projected to increase another 46% to roughly 79,000 housing units in 2012.
In 2009, only 55% of new age-qualified active adult home buyers reported that their down payment came from a previous home sale, significantly down from 100% of respondents in 2005 and 92% in 2007. In 2005 and 2007, no active adult community buyers reported having to tap cash or savings for a down payment. In 2009, 45% of the average buyer’s down payment came from cash or savings.
Further analysis reveals other interesting developments. While median prices for new 55+ homes remain lower than 2005’s peak, a look at average home prices shows a big difference between buyers in age-qualified active adult communities and other 55+ community buyers. Average prices for 55+ homes dropped in 2007 and partially rebounded in 2009. But prices for age-qualified communities more than bounced back; they set a record with an average price of $319,000. Buyers in that group were more affluent, with average incomes of more than $80,000 a year. Twenty-seven percent reported earning $100,000 or more compared to fewer than 5% of such buyers in 2001.
“Most 55+ consumers—those who chose to move and those who stay in their homes—report that they are happy with their homes and communities,” said Sandra Timmermann, Ed.D., director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute. “But those who did move to an age-qualified community—about 3%—reported the greatest satisfaction, rating their homes and communities at nine on a one-to-ten scale.”
The desire to be near family and friends is the mature mover’s overwhelming motivation, the report noted. The design, amenities and appearance of the residence and the community remain important, but less so than before the recession. Buyers who fall into the 55+ age range that are moving into rental homes, both multi-family and single-family, cited a desire for less expensive housing as second in importance to living near friends and family.
Those who are able to buy are getting much more for less. In 2009, more than half of 55+ buyers said they were moving into better homes, but fewer than half reported that their new homes cost more than the old ones.
“Proximity to work” was more important than in the past for those relocating to age-qualified, active adult communities—12% in 2009 versus 2% in 2001—underscoring the trend toward delayed retirement in this age group. There was also a reported increase in the share of 55+ single-family homeowners who say they work at home—which may be a trend noteworthy to home designers.
A small, but growing share of older households is taking advantage of the ability to convert some of their home equity into a reverse mortgage or home equity conversion mortgage. They tend to be older, single-person households with lower household income and longer housing tenure. Those with reverse or home equity conversion mortgages represented more than 241,000 households in 2009, a 54% increase since 2007.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Housing Moving to Higher Ground in 2011
Housing will see gradual improvements in activity this year as the nation’s economy and job market continue to move to higher ground, establishing momentum that will produce more considerable gains in 2012, according to economists who appeared at the NAHB International Builders’ Show in Orlando on Jan. 12.
"This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s tax credits for home buyers.
Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21 percent climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7 percent gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.
Multifamily, which is poised to profit from a disproportionate number of Gen Y members moving into the housing market, has seen the bottom of the cycle, he said, and will see its starts rise 16 percent this year to 133,000 units, with a further 53 percent increase in 2012 to 203,000 units.
Builders’ access to the credit they need to start new homes remains the fragile component of the NAHB forecast, Crowe said. So far, small builders have experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining financing, and rectifying the situation as soon as possible is the top priority of the association.
More encouraging is a rebound in the confidence of consumers, who mid-2010 "froze in place, faced with a lot of uncertainty," he said. A recent pickup in durable purchases for such items as automobiles and furniture indicates that consumers are less afraid today of losing jobs and income.
The U.S. economy will receive a boost from the massive tax package enacted at the end of last year, he said, including more income going into the pockets of wage earners thanks to a one-year 2 percent reduction in Social Security taxes. This will contribute to the gross domestic product strengthening from the 2.5 percent range to 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent by year’s end.
New-home sales, Crowe projected, "will struggle" but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.
The housing recovery will start up slowly this year, he said, because it will be driven by the relatively low housing production Plains states, with Texas the most powerful of the bunch. Traditional bulwarks of housing activity such as California and Florida, on the other hand, will not be among the states whose housing markets recover the fastest.
In addition to stimulative fiscal and monetary policy, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that housing affordability and demographic trends will help support growing housing demand.
Citing research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Nothaft said that households should be growing at an average annual rate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million over the next five to 10 years, suggesting the need for a sharp increase in housing production; half of the 500,000 to 600,000 starts of the past two years were needed just to replace the number of homes being removed from the housing stock.
While there will continue to be supply overhangs in some important large markets, by and large the housing price slump should bottom out by the middle of this year, he said, and price increases are already occurring in some local areas. That should attract prospective buyers who have been procrastinating until they see prices hit bottom.
"Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime," he said, which for fence sitters will be "the time to come into the market."
Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75 percent to the 5.75 percent range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30 percent below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply in the face of rising mortgage rates.
While a 20 percent increase in housing production in 2011 is good news for housing, to put things in perspective, Nothaft said that this gain is from an extremely low level, with single-family production declining about 80 percent from peak to trough.
"This year’s spring selling season will be better than last year’s," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, with job growth providing a stronger stimulus in the housing market than last year’s tax credits for home buyers.
Crowe forecasted 575,000 single-family home starts in 2011, a 21 percent climb over an estimated 475,000 units started in 2010, which in turn showed a 7 percent gain from the 442,000 homes started in 2009.
Multifamily, which is poised to profit from a disproportionate number of Gen Y members moving into the housing market, has seen the bottom of the cycle, he said, and will see its starts rise 16 percent this year to 133,000 units, with a further 53 percent increase in 2012 to 203,000 units.
Builders’ access to the credit they need to start new homes remains the fragile component of the NAHB forecast, Crowe said. So far, small builders have experienced extreme difficulty in obtaining financing, and rectifying the situation as soon as possible is the top priority of the association.
More encouraging is a rebound in the confidence of consumers, who mid-2010 "froze in place, faced with a lot of uncertainty," he said. A recent pickup in durable purchases for such items as automobiles and furniture indicates that consumers are less afraid today of losing jobs and income.
The U.S. economy will receive a boost from the massive tax package enacted at the end of last year, he said, including more income going into the pockets of wage earners thanks to a one-year 2 percent reduction in Social Security taxes. This will contribute to the gross domestic product strengthening from the 2.5 percent range to 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent by year’s end.
New-home sales, Crowe projected, "will struggle" but begin following employment gains, reaching 405,000 for the year, up from an estimate of about 320,000 for 2010.
The housing recovery will start up slowly this year, he said, because it will be driven by the relatively low housing production Plains states, with Texas the most powerful of the bunch. Traditional bulwarks of housing activity such as California and Florida, on the other hand, will not be among the states whose housing markets recover the fastest.
In addition to stimulative fiscal and monetary policy, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said that housing affordability and demographic trends will help support growing housing demand.
Citing research from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Nothaft said that households should be growing at an average annual rate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million over the next five to 10 years, suggesting the need for a sharp increase in housing production; half of the 500,000 to 600,000 starts of the past two years were needed just to replace the number of homes being removed from the housing stock.
While there will continue to be supply overhangs in some important large markets, by and large the housing price slump should bottom out by the middle of this year, he said, and price increases are already occurring in some local areas. That should attract prospective buyers who have been procrastinating until they see prices hit bottom.
"Potential buyers who have resources to buy but want to buy at the bottom are likely to start coming into the market in the springtime," he said, which for fence sitters will be "the time to come into the market."
Fixed-rate mortgages will move up from their current 4.75 percent to the 5.75 percent range by the end of this year, he forecasted. This will push total single-family mortgage originations down about 30 percent below the 2010 level as refinancings fall sharply in the face of rising mortgage rates.
While a 20 percent increase in housing production in 2011 is good news for housing, to put things in perspective, Nothaft said that this gain is from an extremely low level, with single-family production declining about 80 percent from peak to trough.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Do-It-Yourself Interior Painting Is Like Money in the Bank
Trying to decide whether to do some home remodeling this year or leave your money in the bank? You can do both if you remodel with paint. “The cost of do-it-yourself interior painting is so low, it’s almost like remodeling without touching your bank account,” says Debbie Zimmer, spokesperson for the Paint Quality Institute.
The key, of course, is investing some sweat equity.
“While a professional painter might charge up to $500 or more to paint a room, if you’re willing to provide the labor, you can complete the job for a small fraction of that amount,” says Zimmer.
Looked at another way, do-it-yourself interior painting is a great way to “earn” money. Since painting a room is usually a two-day proposition, if a contractor-applied paint job costs $500 in your area, you’re essentially paying yourself $250 a day to paint.
Absent the labor cost, do-it-yourself interior painting is downright thrifty. Your only outlay is for paint, application equipment like brushes and rollers, and some miscellaneous expenses for things like tape and a drop-cloth. Total cost? “Less than $100 a room,” says Zimmer. That’s little more than pocket-change in today’s remodeling world.
Whether you’ve decided to do your own interior painting to save money or simply to have a hand in beautifying your home, Zimmer offers the following tips:
“Take the time to properly prepare the walls and other surfaces before starting to paint,” she says. “That means cleaning them with a solution of detergent and water, after which they should be rinsed and allowed to dry. If there are any cracks or holes in the walls, this is the time to repair them with spackling compound or a good-quality acrylic caulk.”
Zimmer also recommends using only high quality brushes and rollers. “These will help you apply the paint more evenly to get professional-looking results, even if this is your first time painting,” she says.
When applying latex paints, be sure to use brushes and rollers with synthetic bristles and covers. According to Zimmer, the brushes will maintain the proper stiffness and the rollers will maintain their shape even when exposed to a lot of water.
Lastly, Zimmer recommends that do-it-yourselfers buy only top quality 100% acrylic latex interior paints, which she describes as “the do-it-yourselfer’s best friend.”
“If you’re going to spend time and effort doing your own interior painting, you want the job to last, and that’s where these paints really pay off,” she says. “Top quality 100% acrylic latex paints are extremely durable, plus they resist fading, so your paint job will look great for years to come.”
So if you think you’re up to the job, put yourself to work doing your own interior painting. You’ll be rewarded not just with the money you save, but also with the satisfaction of a job well done.
For more information, visit www.paintquality.com.
The key, of course, is investing some sweat equity.
“While a professional painter might charge up to $500 or more to paint a room, if you’re willing to provide the labor, you can complete the job for a small fraction of that amount,” says Zimmer.
Looked at another way, do-it-yourself interior painting is a great way to “earn” money. Since painting a room is usually a two-day proposition, if a contractor-applied paint job costs $500 in your area, you’re essentially paying yourself $250 a day to paint.
Absent the labor cost, do-it-yourself interior painting is downright thrifty. Your only outlay is for paint, application equipment like brushes and rollers, and some miscellaneous expenses for things like tape and a drop-cloth. Total cost? “Less than $100 a room,” says Zimmer. That’s little more than pocket-change in today’s remodeling world.
Whether you’ve decided to do your own interior painting to save money or simply to have a hand in beautifying your home, Zimmer offers the following tips:
“Take the time to properly prepare the walls and other surfaces before starting to paint,” she says. “That means cleaning them with a solution of detergent and water, after which they should be rinsed and allowed to dry. If there are any cracks or holes in the walls, this is the time to repair them with spackling compound or a good-quality acrylic caulk.”
Zimmer also recommends using only high quality brushes and rollers. “These will help you apply the paint more evenly to get professional-looking results, even if this is your first time painting,” she says.
When applying latex paints, be sure to use brushes and rollers with synthetic bristles and covers. According to Zimmer, the brushes will maintain the proper stiffness and the rollers will maintain their shape even when exposed to a lot of water.
Lastly, Zimmer recommends that do-it-yourselfers buy only top quality 100% acrylic latex interior paints, which she describes as “the do-it-yourselfer’s best friend.”
“If you’re going to spend time and effort doing your own interior painting, you want the job to last, and that’s where these paints really pay off,” she says. “Top quality 100% acrylic latex paints are extremely durable, plus they resist fading, so your paint job will look great for years to come.”
So if you think you’re up to the job, put yourself to work doing your own interior painting. You’ll be rewarded not just with the money you save, but also with the satisfaction of a job well done.
For more information, visit www.paintquality.com.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Helping Buyers become Homeowners – Lowe’s Offers Customers a One-Stop Destination for Repairs, Renovation Products and Service Needs
There are times in life when we all need a little bit of help. Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or someone looking for a fresh start, today’s market can be challenging; however, it is also ripe with opportunity and possibilities. That’s where Lowe’s comes in to lend a helping hand.
Already a leader in the home improvement space, the retailer made a bold decision recently to take its real estate efforts a step further, unveiling a new, nationwide, in-store program, in connection with REbuildUSA, geared toward offering customers a one-stop destination for repairs, renovation products and service needs through the FHA Streamlined 203(k) program, which adds money into a mortgage for repairs and renovations.
“Homes needing renovation are typically the very best buys available; however, most prospective buyers have no idea how to finance both the purchase of the home and the renovation work required,” says Dennis Walsh, CEO of REbuildUSA. “The FHA Streamlined 203(k) offers a competitive solution. At the same time, millions of current homeowners could also benefit from this program that offers excellent rates and the ability to make improvements to their homes.”
Always looking to make the process easier for consumers, REbuildUSA and Lowe’s recently added lending partner Bank of America. The Charlotte-based company joins Wells Fargo as an approved lender in this program.
“Lowe’s is working with REbuildUSA to be the home improvement solution for products and services required by a Streamlined 203(k) loan,” says Mark Malone, vice president of consumer marketing for Lowe’s. “We can help facilitate the needs of home buyers acquiring distressed properties and facilitate the process of getting their projects done.”
Another plus for faster facilitation: Lowe’s is an approved contractor, which significantly cuts down the contractor validation process, from three weeks for independent contractors to about three days.
Specially trained Lowe’s associates in stores across the country, except in Texas, can help the customer plan the project and select products, and Lowe’s independent subcontracted installers can handle the installation. The program allows Streamlined 203(k)-qualified customers to have a huge selection of products and services under one roof, and it gives customers the ability to immediately improve their homes by adding equity with the repairs and renovations.
In good markets and bad, Lowe’s has shown that it’s a staunch supporter of the real estate industry and is in it for the long haul, and it’s now going a step further in helping buyers bring their renovation dreams to reality.
For more information on the Lowe’s/REbuildUSA program, please visit www.rebuildusa.com.
Already a leader in the home improvement space, the retailer made a bold decision recently to take its real estate efforts a step further, unveiling a new, nationwide, in-store program, in connection with REbuildUSA, geared toward offering customers a one-stop destination for repairs, renovation products and service needs through the FHA Streamlined 203(k) program, which adds money into a mortgage for repairs and renovations.
“Homes needing renovation are typically the very best buys available; however, most prospective buyers have no idea how to finance both the purchase of the home and the renovation work required,” says Dennis Walsh, CEO of REbuildUSA. “The FHA Streamlined 203(k) offers a competitive solution. At the same time, millions of current homeowners could also benefit from this program that offers excellent rates and the ability to make improvements to their homes.”
Always looking to make the process easier for consumers, REbuildUSA and Lowe’s recently added lending partner Bank of America. The Charlotte-based company joins Wells Fargo as an approved lender in this program.
“Lowe’s is working with REbuildUSA to be the home improvement solution for products and services required by a Streamlined 203(k) loan,” says Mark Malone, vice president of consumer marketing for Lowe’s. “We can help facilitate the needs of home buyers acquiring distressed properties and facilitate the process of getting their projects done.”
Another plus for faster facilitation: Lowe’s is an approved contractor, which significantly cuts down the contractor validation process, from three weeks for independent contractors to about three days.
Specially trained Lowe’s associates in stores across the country, except in Texas, can help the customer plan the project and select products, and Lowe’s independent subcontracted installers can handle the installation. The program allows Streamlined 203(k)-qualified customers to have a huge selection of products and services under one roof, and it gives customers the ability to immediately improve their homes by adding equity with the repairs and renovations.
In good markets and bad, Lowe’s has shown that it’s a staunch supporter of the real estate industry and is in it for the long haul, and it’s now going a step further in helping buyers bring their renovation dreams to reality.
For more information on the Lowe’s/REbuildUSA program, please visit www.rebuildusa.com.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Pending Home Sales Continue Recovery
Pending home sales rose again in November 2010, with the broad trend over the past five months indicating a gradual recovery into 2011, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 3.5% to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. The index is 5.0% below a reading of 97.0 in November 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. “In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market,” he said. “But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity.”
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.8% to 72.6 in November but is 6.2% below November 2009. In the Midwest, the index declined 4.2% in November to 78.3 and is 7.7% below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.8% to an index of 91.4 and are 7.2% below November 2009. In the West, the index jumped 18.2% to 123.3 and is 0.4% above a year ago.
“If we add 2 million jobs as expected in 2011, and mortgage rates rise only moderately, we should see existing-home sales rise to a higher, sustainable volume,” Yun said. “Credit remains tight, but if lenders return to more normal, safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, there would be a bigger boost to the housing market and spillover benefits for the broader economy.”
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3% around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2%.
For perspective, Yun said that the U.S. has added 27 million people over the past 10 years. “However, the number of jobs is roughly the same as it was in 2000 when existing-home sales totaled 5.2 million, which appears to be a sustainable figure given the current level of employment,” he explained.
“All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market, as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.”
Existing-home sales are projected to rise about 8% to 5.2 million in 2011 from 4.8 million in 2010, with an additional gain of 4% in 2012. The median existing-home price could rise 0.6% to $173,700 in 2011 from $172,700 in 2010, which was essentially unchanged from 2009.
“As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2-3% in 2012,” Yun said.
New-home sales are estimated to rise 24% to 392,000 in 2011, but would remain well below historic averages, while housing starts are forecast to rise 21% to 716,000.
Yun sees Gross Domestic Product growing 2.% in 2011, and the Consumer Price Index rising 2.3%.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. “In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market,” he said. “But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity.”
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.8% to 72.6 in November but is 6.2% below November 2009. In the Midwest, the index declined 4.2% in November to 78.3 and is 7.7% below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.8% to an index of 91.4 and are 7.2% below November 2009. In the West, the index jumped 18.2% to 123.3 and is 0.4% above a year ago.
“If we add 2 million jobs as expected in 2011, and mortgage rates rise only moderately, we should see existing-home sales rise to a higher, sustainable volume,” Yun said. “Credit remains tight, but if lenders return to more normal, safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, there would be a bigger boost to the housing market and spillover benefits for the broader economy.”
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3% around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2%.
For perspective, Yun said that the U.S. has added 27 million people over the past 10 years. “However, the number of jobs is roughly the same as it was in 2000 when existing-home sales totaled 5.2 million, which appears to be a sustainable figure given the current level of employment,” he explained.
“All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market, as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.”
Existing-home sales are projected to rise about 8% to 5.2 million in 2011 from 4.8 million in 2010, with an additional gain of 4% in 2012. The median existing-home price could rise 0.6% to $173,700 in 2011 from $172,700 in 2010, which was essentially unchanged from 2009.
“As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2-3% in 2012,” Yun said.
New-home sales are estimated to rise 24% to 392,000 in 2011, but would remain well below historic averages, while housing starts are forecast to rise 21% to 716,000.
Yun sees Gross Domestic Product growing 2.% in 2011, and the Consumer Price Index rising 2.3%.
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