Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Housing Starts Rise 1.7 Percent in July

Nationwide housing starts inched up 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units in July from a downwardly revised figure in the previous month, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures released today. The gain occurred entirely on the multifamily side, with single-family housing production falling 4.2 percent to 432,000 units.

“Builders are very reluctant to build more homes in view of the current state of the economy and weak buyer demand,” noted Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

“Right now the housing market is essentially in a holding pattern,” acknowledged NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As our latest member surveys have indicated, builders are seeing greater hesitancy among potential home buyers who are uncertain about what’s in store for the economy and jobs going forward. That said, favorable home buying conditions including historically low mortgage rates and low house prices should help spur additional demand as the job market gradually improves later this year.”

The entire 1.7 percent gain in housing production this July was due to a 32.6 percent jump on the more volatile multifamily side, which brought that sector back closer to trend at a 114,000-unit rate following a major dip in the previous month. Meanwhile, single-family housing production declined 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 432,000 units, its lowest mark since May of 2009.

Two regions registered improved starts activity in July, with the Northeast and Midwest each posting double-digit gains, of 30.5 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively. The South, which is the country’s largest housing market, posted a 6.3 percent decline in starts this July, while the West posted no change in starts activity.

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, declined 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 565,000 units in July. Single-family permits fell 1.2 percent to 416,000 units, while multifamily permits fell 8 percent to 149,000 units. Regionally, permits fell nearly 26 percent in the Northeast, 1.1 percent in the Midwest, and 4.9 percent in the West, but gained 3.9 percent in the South in July.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Broad Stabilization in Second Quarter Metro Area Home Prices with Strong Sales

The real estate trend in firming home prices solidified in the second quarter with more metropolitan areas showing increases from a year ago, aided by a surge in home sales driven by the home buyer tax credit, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors. In the second quarter, 100 out of 155 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) had higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the second quarter of 2009, including 14 with double-digit increases; two were unchanged and 53 metros showed price declines. In the first quarter of this year, 91 areas had higher prices, while only 26 MSAs experienced annual price gains in the second quarter of 2009.

The national median existing single-family price was $176,900 in the second quarter, up 1.5% from $174,200 in the same period of 2009. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes accounted for 32% of second quarter sales, down from 36% a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the correction in home prices appears to have ended in 2009. “All year we’ve been seeing relatively flat national home prices, which appear to be supported by market fundamentals,” he said. “Prices in some areas remain below replacement construction costs, so even with an elevated supply of existing homes on the market, we don’t expect any consequential movement in home prices for the foreseeable future. Very low inventory of newly built homes will also help to support home values.”

Yun urged caution on interpreting price data. “The median price is influenced by the mix of homes that were sold and do not reflect pure appreciation or depreciation,” he said. “The recorded home prices in many markets were significantly depressed last year because of a large percentage of distressed homes sold at discount. Now as more normal, non-distressed home sales are occurring, the median price in many areas is showing higher values.”

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, rose 9.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million in the second quarter from 5.14 million in the first quarter, and were 17.3% above the 4.78 million-unit pace in the second quarter of 2009.

Sales increased from the first quarter in 44 states and the District of Columbia; 47 states and D.C. had increases over year-ago sales levels.

Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 3.2% to $238,000 in the second quarter from a year earlier. Existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 14.9% in the second quarter to a level of 980,000 and are 23.6% above the second quarter of 2009.

In the Midwest, the median existing single-family home price increased 1.4% to $148,500 in the second quarter from the second quarter of last year. Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 14.5% in the second quarter to a pace of 1.30 million and are 20.9% above the same period in 2009.

In the South, the median existing single-family home price slipped 2.0% to $155,500 in the second quarter from the second quarter of 2009. Existing-home sales in the South increased 10.9% in the second quarter to an annual rate of 2.10 million and are 18.8% above a year ago.

The median existing single-family home price in the West rose 2.6% to $219,700 in the second quarter from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West fell 2.6% in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.23 million but are 7.6% higher than the second quarter of 2009.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Remodeling Dips but Shows Signs of Stabilization

The remodeling market slid backward during the second quarter, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI). The RMI (combining current and future market indicators) sunk to 40.7 from 43.8 in the first quarter. Current market conditions slid back to 42.6 from 44.5 in the previous quarter. Future indicators of remodeling business declined to 38.9 from 43.1 in the last quarter.

The RMI measures market demand for current and future residential remodeling projects based on remodelers' perceptions and indicators of future activity like calls for bids. Any number below 50 indicates that more remodelers say market conditions are getting worse than report improving conditions. The RMI has been running below 50 since the final quarter of 2005 and during the last quarter approached break even again.

"Remodelers are suffering from weak consumer confidence and constricted credit lines," said NAHB Remodelers Chairman Donna Shirey, CGR, CAPS, CGP, a remodeler from Issaquah, Wash. "Homeowners are delaying remodeling projects because of economic uncertainty."

The current conditions indices for the remodeling market worsened in two regions: Northeast 41.4 (from 46.6 in the first quarter); and South 42.4 (from 44.1). However, current remodeling indices improved in the Midwest 44.7 (from 43.8) and the West 42.0 (from 34.8). Major additions fell to 44.2 (from 48.0), as did minor additions to 45.8 (from 47.3). Maintenance and repair indicators showed a milder decline, from 37.3 to 36.6.

All the indices for future remodeling business declined. Calls for bids dropped to 46.2 (from 49.4). Work committed for the next three months slumped to 27.9 (from 29.9). The backlog of remodeling jobs dipped to 37.7 (from 44.8), and appointments for proposals slid to 43.7 (from 48.1).

Responding to additional special questions in the survey, remodelers also reported on the changing composition of remodeling projects. Sixty-one percent said bathroom remodeling was one of their most common projects during the first half of 2010. Kitchen remodeling came next with 52 percent. In previous years, kitchen remodeling was reported as the most common activity by more than 70 percent of remodeler respondents.

In general, comparisons to historical data show that larger remodeling projects (such as room additions, whole house remodeling, bathroom additions, and second story additions) have been on the decline for several years. Smaller remodeling jobs (such as window and door replacements) have remained relatively steady, or, in the case of handyman services, actually increased. For example, only 29 percent of remodelers reported that room additions were a common activity in 2010, compared to 70 percent in 2004. Conversely, none of the professional remodelers responding to the survey reported that it was common for their companies to perform handyman services in 2004, while 33 percent of remodelers were regularly providing handyman work in the first half of 2010.

"While remodelers are continuing to struggle, we expect the rest of 2010 to be a period of stabilization for remodeling, with the first stages of recovery emerging by the end of the year, followed by a more robust recovery beginning early next year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "For now, professional remodelers are taking on smaller projects and working to find consumers willing to spend money despite the economic uncertainty."

For more information about remodeling, visit www.nahb.org/remodel.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

New-Home Sales Bounce Back from Record Low in June

Coming off an historic low in May, sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 23.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 units in June, according to U.S. Commerce Department data released today.

“Today’s numbers are an encouraging sign that new-home sales are coming back from an expected slow period that followed the expiration of the home buyer tax credit program,” said Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “While we still have quite a way to go on the path to recovery, it’s good to see that we are headed in the right direction.”

“It’s worth noting that some of the new-home sales in June were due to move-up buyers who were able to sell their previous home to a tax-credit-eligible buyer while that program was active,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Also, while sales activity is still far from robust, it has picked up some momentum as positive factors such as historic low mortgage rates, great selection and attractive prices help draw potential home buyers back to the market. We anticipate that this momentum will continue along with a gradually improving economy, although other factors such as a critical lack of production financing remain a drag on housing’s recovery.”

Sales of new homes rose strongly in three out of four regions in June. The largest percentage increase was the Northeast’s 46.4 percent gain, followed by a 33.1 percent gain in the South and a 20.5 percent gain in the Midwest. The West was the only region where new-home sales did not improve in June, instead falling 6.6 percent to a new record low.

Meanwhile, the nationwide inventory of new homes for sale declined to 210,000 in June, the thinnest it has been since September of 1968. This amounts to a 7.6 months’ supply at the current sales pace.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Restoring AD&C Lending Key to Promoting Job and Economic Growth

With the Obama Administration and Federal Reserve this week sponsoring events that focus on how to ease regulatory burdens on the small business community that are constricting job growth, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) today urged policymakers to address the lack of financing for housing production that is impeding the housing and economic recovery.

"In normal times, housing accounts for about 17 percent of GDP," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "However, in the current economic climate, lenders have basically stopped making acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans and are calling in existing loans, even when the borrower's payments are current. Policymakers must act now to restore credit availability for viable home building projects; otherwise countless construction jobs will be lost, further jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery."

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the objective of a conference today at the Federal Reserve is to develop policies that will support the flow of loans to creditworthy small businesses. Meanwhile, the White House has asked business leaders and lawmakers to attend a jobs summit at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday to help identify regulatory obstacles that are hampering job and economic growth.

NAHB is reaching out to regulators, banks, Administration officials and members of Congress to seek action to reduce regulatory restrictions on AD&C credit and rein in overzealous bank examiners.

The vast majority of NAHB builder members are small businesses situated in communities across the nation who employ workers that contribute to the local economic base. NAHB estimates the one-year local impacts of building 100 single-family homes in a typical metro area result in the creation of 324 local jobs and an additional $21.1 million in local income and $2.2 million in taxes and other revenue for local governments.

Beyond its negative effect on home builders, the lack of AD&C lending has major implications for the economy and the nation, said Jones.

"Over the next decade, population growth will trigger demand for an average of at least 1.7 million additional homes per year," he said. "This translates into five million jobs and significant economic activity, including tax revenue. But without increased AD&C lending, this demand will not be met, jobs will be lost and job creation will suffer."

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

House Extends Deadline to Sept. for Homebuyer Tax Credit

The U.S. House of Representatives voted to give homebuyers who qualified for a federal tax credit more time to settle on their pending purchases.

The House voted 409-5 to extend the deadline for closing home purchases to Sept. 30. The program initially required borrowers who signed contracts before April 30 to complete paperwork by July 1 to get a tax credit of as much as $8,000.

The House measure accommodates borrowers at risk of being disqualified for the tax credit because lenders and loan servicers aren’t processing mortgages quickly enough. The Senate is considering similar legislation.

“We owe this to the people who have essentially followed the rule who are caught by a closing date,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Sander Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said before the vote.

As many as 180,000 homebuyers would lose their tax credit if Congress fails to push back the date, according to the National Association of Realtors, which sought the extension. Transactions at risk include as many as 75,000 short sales, or homes being purchased for less than the existing debt on them.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Top 10 Things You Should Know about Financial Reform

As the United States continues to put plans into action in order to help remedy the country’s financial situation, Americans are waiting optimistically to see the end result of the regulation bill that is moving through both the Senate and House. While the Senate recently approved their version of the big financial regulation bill by a 59-39 vote, the bill has now moved to a conference committee where it will be reconciled with the already passed House bill.
Here are the top 10 things you should know about the financial regulations bill.

1. End of too-big-to fail: If a big financial firm is failing, it will have only one fate: liquidation. There will be no taxpayer funded bailout. Instead, regulators will have the ability to shut down and break apart failing financial firms in a safe, orderly way – without putting the rest of the financial system at risk, and without asking taxpayers to pay a dime.

2. Close loopholes in regulation of major financial firms: Loopholes that allowed firms like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and AIG to operate without tough standards or oversight were major contributors to the financial crisis. Regulatory reform will close these loopholes, and create accountable regulation for all firms that pose the most risk to the financial system. It will end the ability of financial firms to avoid tough standards by manipulating their legal structure.

3. Bring transparency to hedge funds: Financial reform will require advisers to hedge funds to register with the SEC for the first time, bringing transparency and oversight to these unregulated financial firms.

4. Constrain the size of the largest firms: Financial reform will prevent any financial firm from growing by acquisition to more than 10% of the liabilities in the financial system. This will reduce the adverse effects of the failure of any single firm and prevent the further concentration of our financial system.

5. Reform executive pay and strengthen shareholder protections: Financial reform will give shareholders a say in the compensation of senior executives at the companies they own, and require that the compensation committees of corporate boards are independent.

6. Separate banking and speculative trading – the Volcker Rule: Financial reform will protect taxpayers and depositors by separating risky, speculative “proprietary trading” from the business of banking.

7. Strongest consumer protections ever: Instead of seven federal agencies with only partial responsibilities for consumer protection, there will be one agency with the sole responsibility of establishing clear rules of the road for banks, mortgage companies, payday lenders, credit card lenders and other financial service firms and for enforcing these rules. From now on, every consumer will be empowered with the clear and concise information they need to make financial decisions that are best for them.

8. Crack down on the abuses in the mortgage markets at the center of the crisis: Financial reform will ban abusive practices in the mortgage markets, like those where brokers got paid more to put families into higher priced loans than those they qualified for, and require mortgage brokers and banks to consider a family’s ability to repay when making a loan. The reforms will also require lenders and Wall Street loan packagers to keep skin in the game when selling off loans to investors and make full disclosure so investors know what’s in those packages. Reforms of credit rating agencies will help make sure investors do not rely unwisely on their ratings on these packages.

9. Safer, more transparent derivatives market to help Main Street businesses: By bringing the derivatives markets out of the shadows, reform will benefit those businesses that use derivatives to manage their commercial risks. Reform will benefit Main Street companies at the expense of Wall Street’s hidden fees. That’s good for every farmer and every manufacturer that uses derivatives the way they were meant to be used. Derivatives reform also means the taxpayer won’t be on the hook for reckless risks of an AIG.

10. Support long term job growth by helping prevent future crises: By making the financial system safer and stronger, reform will reduce the chances that a financial crisis deprives businesses of the credit they need to grow and to create jobs. Financial reform will ensure businesses a more stable and predictable source of credit through the business cycle and reduce the risk of a sharp and sudden cut-off because of financial panic.