Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 313,000 units in September, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department. This marks the fastest pace of new-home sales in the past five months.
"Today's report highlights the gradual improvement in housing market conditions that is becoming evident in certain pockets of the country, as consumers who can surmount very restrictive lending standards to qualify for a favorable mortgage rate seize on this opportunity to buy," said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. "The latest numbers also reveal that first-time buyers are driving the new-homes market right now, as evidenced by the volume of lower-priced, entry-level homes under contract. It's worth noting that these consumers are very dependent upon federal policies and programs that support homeownership, such as the mortgage interest deduction and low-downpayment mortgage options that have been threatened by recent government proposals."
"The improved rate of new-home sales in September is on par with NAHB's forecast for the overall number of sales this year and in keeping with the spotty improvements that our latest builder surveys have highlighted in select markets," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While 313,000 is still an exceptionally low rate of new-home sales by historic standards, it is an encouraging sign of an anticipated broader recovery over the course of next year, and builders have helped the situation by keeping their inventories of homes for sale very lean in areas where there is an oversupply of existing units."
Regionally, new-home sales were mixed in September, with gains of 11.2 percent and 9.7 percent registered in the South and West, respectively, and declines of 4.2 percent and 12.2 percent registered in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively.
The inventory of new homes for sale held at an all-time record low of 163,000 units in September. This represents a modest 6.2 -month supply at the current sales pace.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Number of Improving Housing Markets Nearly Doubles in October
The second edition of the National Association of Home Builders/ First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released today, shows 23 individual housing markets now qualifying as "improving" under the new gauge's parameters. This is nearly double the 12 housing markets that made the list last month.
The index reveals metropolitan areas that have shown improvement for at least six months in housing permits, employment and housing prices. The following metros were listed in October:
•Alexandria, LA
•Amarillo, TX
•Anchorage, AK
•Bismarck, ND
•Casper, WY
•Fairbanks, AK
•Fayetteville, NC
•Houma, LA
•Iowa City, IA
•Jonesboro, AR
•Kankakee, IL
•McAllen, TX
•Midland, TX
•New Orleans, LA
•Odessa, TX
•Pine Bluff, AR
•Pittsburgh, PA
•Sherman, TX
•Sumter, SC
•Waco, TX
•Waterloo, IA
•Wichita Falls, TX
•Winston-Salem, NC
"Both the number and geographic diversity of improving housing markets expanded this month, with Iowa, Illinois and South Carolina all newly represented by one entry or more on the list," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "This is further evidence that, despite the tough conditions that persist in many cities, pockets of improvement are emerging in local housing markets across the country."
"While Pittsburgh and New Orleans remain the two largest improving markets, the October IMI is heavily weighted by smaller cities in which energy and agriculture are the primary economic drivers and where the effects of the recession have been less pronounced," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "In particular, Texas stands out for its seven entries on the improving markets list."
Bangor, Maine, was the only area to drop off of the improving markets list in October, due to a decline in local building permits.
The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.
Please visit www.nahb.org/imi for additional data, tables and a list of 2011 future economic release dates.
The index reveals metropolitan areas that have shown improvement for at least six months in housing permits, employment and housing prices. The following metros were listed in October:
•Alexandria, LA
•Amarillo, TX
•Anchorage, AK
•Bismarck, ND
•Casper, WY
•Fairbanks, AK
•Fayetteville, NC
•Houma, LA
•Iowa City, IA
•Jonesboro, AR
•Kankakee, IL
•McAllen, TX
•Midland, TX
•New Orleans, LA
•Odessa, TX
•Pine Bluff, AR
•Pittsburgh, PA
•Sherman, TX
•Sumter, SC
•Waco, TX
•Waterloo, IA
•Wichita Falls, TX
•Winston-Salem, NC
"Both the number and geographic diversity of improving housing markets expanded this month, with Iowa, Illinois and South Carolina all newly represented by one entry or more on the list," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "This is further evidence that, despite the tough conditions that persist in many cities, pockets of improvement are emerging in local housing markets across the country."
"While Pittsburgh and New Orleans remain the two largest improving markets, the October IMI is heavily weighted by smaller cities in which energy and agriculture are the primary economic drivers and where the effects of the recession have been less pronounced," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "In particular, Texas stands out for its seven entries on the improving markets list."
Bangor, Maine, was the only area to drop off of the improving markets list in October, due to a decline in local building permits.
The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.
Please visit www.nahb.org/imi for additional data, tables and a list of 2011 future economic release dates.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Feelin' Hot.. Hot.. Hot!
The summer may be over, but some parts of the economy are just starting to heat up. One economic indicator that has come in hotter lately is inflation. At the end of September, the final reading of GDP in the 2nd Quarter showed inflation at 2.5%, which was up from the previous reading of 2.4%.
That elevated inflation reading was released on the heels of a hot Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has risen steadily and jumped to the upper-end of the Fed’s comfort level in the latest release.
Although Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated a couple weeks ago that inflation has "moderated" of late and should continue to do so, there are still some reasons for concern. For example, we are experiencing an unprecedented amount of stimulus and low rates, which is something never seen before in history.
So why is this significant?
The concept is simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.
Once inflation starts to emerge it can manifest rather quickly. Future inflation readings will be closely watched to see if a trend higher is emerging, and last month’s elevated number will certainly heat up the debate surrounding more stimulus, as more money into the system fuels inflation further.
If inflation heats up even more, the Fed will likely back off their "low rates until mid-2013" mandate. Inflation really does change everything, so the markets will continue to follow this story closely.
That elevated inflation reading was released on the heels of a hot Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has risen steadily and jumped to the upper-end of the Fed’s comfort level in the latest release.
Although Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated a couple weeks ago that inflation has "moderated" of late and should continue to do so, there are still some reasons for concern. For example, we are experiencing an unprecedented amount of stimulus and low rates, which is something never seen before in history.
So why is this significant?
The concept is simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.
Once inflation starts to emerge it can manifest rather quickly. Future inflation readings will be closely watched to see if a trend higher is emerging, and last month’s elevated number will certainly heat up the debate surrounding more stimulus, as more money into the system fuels inflation further.
If inflation heats up even more, the Fed will likely back off their "low rates until mid-2013" mandate. Inflation really does change everything, so the markets will continue to follow this story closely.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Home prices post fourth month of gains
U.S. home prices inched up for the fourth month in a row, rising 0.9 percent from June to July, according to the latest Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
Only two of the 20 metro areas tracked by the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite saw month-to-month price declines: Las Vegas (-0.2 percent) and Phoenix (-0.1 percent). The index showed prices in Las Vegas down 59.3 percent from their August 2006 peak, hitting a new low.
Looking back a year, 18 out of 20 metro areas saw annual price declines, with the price index for Minneapolis falling 9.1 percent, Phoenix down 8.8 percent, and Portland, Ore., dropping 8.4 percent.
Detroit (up 1.2 percent) and Washington D.C. (up 0.3 percent) were the only cities to post annual gains in July, leaving the 20-City Composite down 4.1 percent.
But a dozen other cities -- Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, and Tampa -- posted improvements in annual price declines compared to June.
Standard & Poor's said the report included some "unusually large revisions" across some metro areas. Detroit was the most affected, with additional sales in May and June showing "a much healthier market than previously thought."
Only two of the 20 metro areas tracked by the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite saw month-to-month price declines: Las Vegas (-0.2 percent) and Phoenix (-0.1 percent). The index showed prices in Las Vegas down 59.3 percent from their August 2006 peak, hitting a new low.
Looking back a year, 18 out of 20 metro areas saw annual price declines, with the price index for Minneapolis falling 9.1 percent, Phoenix down 8.8 percent, and Portland, Ore., dropping 8.4 percent.
Detroit (up 1.2 percent) and Washington D.C. (up 0.3 percent) were the only cities to post annual gains in July, leaving the 20-City Composite down 4.1 percent.
But a dozen other cities -- Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, and Tampa -- posted improvements in annual price declines compared to June.
Standard & Poor's said the report included some "unusually large revisions" across some metro areas. Detroit was the most affected, with additional sales in May and June showing "a much healthier market than previously thought."
Friday, September 23, 2011
Housing Starts Decline, Permits Rise in August
Nationwide housing starts declined 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000 units in August, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. The decline was primarily on the more volatile multifamily side, with single-family housing production edging down just 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, permits for new construction posted modest gains in both sectors.
"At this point, most builders are only looking to replenish their depleted inventories of new homes for sale, but otherwise holding off on new projects," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "While we would like to get more crews back on the job, we need to see solid improvement in consumer demand, greater access to credit for both builders and buyers, and a reduction in the number of foreclosed properties on the market before we can ramp up new production."
"Today's numbers are completely consistent with NAHB's forecast for the quarter, and are in keeping with the anemic economic and job growth we are seeing across most of the country," said NAHB Senior Economist Robert Denk. "That said, we continue to anticipate modest gains in new-home production through the end of this year with greater momentum building into 2013, and some pockets of improvement are already evident in about a dozen metros nationwide."
Single-family housing starts declined 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 417,000 units in August, while multifamily production – which tends to display greater volatility on a month to month basis – declined 13.5 percent to a 154,000-unit rate. Regionally, combined starts activity was mixed in August, with the Midwest and West posting gains of 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, and the Northeast and South posting declines of 29.1 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.
Building permits, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in August, their highest level since last December. Single-family permits gained 2.5 percent to 413,000 units, while multifamily permits gained 4.5 percent to 207,000 units.
"At this point, most builders are only looking to replenish their depleted inventories of new homes for sale, but otherwise holding off on new projects," said National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. "While we would like to get more crews back on the job, we need to see solid improvement in consumer demand, greater access to credit for both builders and buyers, and a reduction in the number of foreclosed properties on the market before we can ramp up new production."
"Today's numbers are completely consistent with NAHB's forecast for the quarter, and are in keeping with the anemic economic and job growth we are seeing across most of the country," said NAHB Senior Economist Robert Denk. "That said, we continue to anticipate modest gains in new-home production through the end of this year with greater momentum building into 2013, and some pockets of improvement are already evident in about a dozen metros nationwide."
Single-family housing starts declined 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 417,000 units in August, while multifamily production – which tends to display greater volatility on a month to month basis – declined 13.5 percent to a 154,000-unit rate. Regionally, combined starts activity was mixed in August, with the Midwest and West posting gains of 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, and the Northeast and South posting declines of 29.1 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.
Building permits, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 units in August, their highest level since last December. Single-family permits gained 2.5 percent to 413,000 units, while multifamily permits gained 4.5 percent to 207,000 units.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
New index tracks metros with growth in real estate prices, permits and jobs
After enduring what has seemed like an endless string of dismal numbers reports, the housing industry is about to get some good news. Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) launched the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), dedicated entirely to tracking metropolitan areas that have consistently shown signs of improvement.
To make the list, a metro area must have shown at least six months of improvement from its trough in three areas the NAHB sees as key to determining the pulse of the housing market: housing permits, employment, and home prices.
To be released monthly, the index will draw its data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for employment growth numbers, house-price appreciation data from Freddie Mac, and single-family permit numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.
"Housing conditions are local and do not always reflect the national picture," said Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman, in a release. "We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery."
This month, 12 metro areas made the cut: Alexandria, La.; Anchorage, Alaska.; Bangor, Maine; Bismarck, N.D.; Casper, Wyo.; Fairbanks, Alaska.; Fayetteville, N.C.; Houma, La.; Midland, Texas; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; and Waco, Texas.
"It’s not surprising that many of the states represented are energy-rich areas," observed David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist. Still, he points out, "last year at this time, there was not a single market that showed improvement using these criteria."
To make the list, a metro area must have shown at least six months of improvement from its trough in three areas the NAHB sees as key to determining the pulse of the housing market: housing permits, employment, and home prices.
To be released monthly, the index will draw its data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for employment growth numbers, house-price appreciation data from Freddie Mac, and single-family permit numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.
"Housing conditions are local and do not always reflect the national picture," said Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman, in a release. "We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery."
This month, 12 metro areas made the cut: Alexandria, La.; Anchorage, Alaska.; Bangor, Maine; Bismarck, N.D.; Casper, Wyo.; Fairbanks, Alaska.; Fayetteville, N.C.; Houma, La.; Midland, Texas; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; and Waco, Texas.
"It’s not surprising that many of the states represented are energy-rich areas," observed David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist. Still, he points out, "last year at this time, there was not a single market that showed improvement using these criteria."
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Is Your Loan Modification Application Stuck?
If you’re on the verge of losing your home, or you know someone who is, then you also know about the long, bureaucratic process involved in applying for a loan modification from a lender. The most common approach is to apply under the new Home Affordability Mortgage Program (HAMP), but lenders also accept modifications from mortgage holders because lenders really don’t want to take the house—they just want their money.
In many cases, however, the approval process takes longer than many homeowners can afford. But one expert believes it doesn’t have to be that way, and that there are solutions for homeowners whose applications seem stuck in the mud.
“Applying for a loan modification can be an extremely stressful process,” says Stephfan Nurse, CEO of Consumer Education—the makers of Mortgage Reduction software designed to help people through the modification process.
“Even if you send in your documents and your lender tells you everything is okay, you may still have a great amount of anxiety because you have no idea what the lender is doing with your file. You may not know what the next step is and how long it takes to move through each step in the process. Your lender may tell you what the next step is, but you may not understand why it will take so long. There are reasons, however, why the process can get stuck, and there are ways to move that process along, if you understand what goes on behind the scenes.”
Nurse’s tips for making the process smoother include:
• Account Numbers – It often happens that when you fax your paperwork to your lender, the lender either says they lost your paperwork or they just didn’t receive it all. This isn’t because they are incompetent. It’s because they receive thousands of faxes each day, and they use an image scanning technology to capture them all and place them in the appropriate file. In that system, a cover sheet that has your account number on it will get placed correctly, but the following sheets that lack your account number can be easily misplaced. The solution is to put your account number on every page of your paperwork, so they have a better chance of placing all your paperwork in your file.
• Complete the Paperwork – When your file gets assigned to a document manager, typically about 30 days after you first applied for the modification, the document manager’s job is to check to make sure all your required documents are ready to be submitted to the negotiator/specialist for review. If you have an incomplete file, even if you’re missing just one single required document, the document manager will note your account as having an incomplete file and move on to the next file to review. At this point, a generic letter is automatically mailed to your home requesting the additional information your file lacks. This letter can take up to two weeks to get to you, and then another two to four weeks before they look at your updated information. The key is to never send an incomplete package to your lender. It can lead to a delay or even a flat out denial.
• Follow Up – Finally, follow up every week with your lender to make sure all the documents they have are up to date. Don’t worry about being a pest. After all, it’s your house on the line if things get stuck in neutral. If you do this consistently, you will avoid getting caught in the delay cycle.
“The process is like any other, and it can be rife with mistakes and bureaucratic snafus,” Nurse adds. “But if you take the steps to reduce the opportunities for error, your application can move through the process much faster and you’ll have a much better chance at being approved.”
In many cases, however, the approval process takes longer than many homeowners can afford. But one expert believes it doesn’t have to be that way, and that there are solutions for homeowners whose applications seem stuck in the mud.
“Applying for a loan modification can be an extremely stressful process,” says Stephfan Nurse, CEO of Consumer Education—the makers of Mortgage Reduction software designed to help people through the modification process.
“Even if you send in your documents and your lender tells you everything is okay, you may still have a great amount of anxiety because you have no idea what the lender is doing with your file. You may not know what the next step is and how long it takes to move through each step in the process. Your lender may tell you what the next step is, but you may not understand why it will take so long. There are reasons, however, why the process can get stuck, and there are ways to move that process along, if you understand what goes on behind the scenes.”
Nurse’s tips for making the process smoother include:
• Account Numbers – It often happens that when you fax your paperwork to your lender, the lender either says they lost your paperwork or they just didn’t receive it all. This isn’t because they are incompetent. It’s because they receive thousands of faxes each day, and they use an image scanning technology to capture them all and place them in the appropriate file. In that system, a cover sheet that has your account number on it will get placed correctly, but the following sheets that lack your account number can be easily misplaced. The solution is to put your account number on every page of your paperwork, so they have a better chance of placing all your paperwork in your file.
• Complete the Paperwork – When your file gets assigned to a document manager, typically about 30 days after you first applied for the modification, the document manager’s job is to check to make sure all your required documents are ready to be submitted to the negotiator/specialist for review. If you have an incomplete file, even if you’re missing just one single required document, the document manager will note your account as having an incomplete file and move on to the next file to review. At this point, a generic letter is automatically mailed to your home requesting the additional information your file lacks. This letter can take up to two weeks to get to you, and then another two to four weeks before they look at your updated information. The key is to never send an incomplete package to your lender. It can lead to a delay or even a flat out denial.
• Follow Up – Finally, follow up every week with your lender to make sure all the documents they have are up to date. Don’t worry about being a pest. After all, it’s your house on the line if things get stuck in neutral. If you do this consistently, you will avoid getting caught in the delay cycle.
“The process is like any other, and it can be rife with mistakes and bureaucratic snafus,” Nurse adds. “But if you take the steps to reduce the opportunities for error, your application can move through the process much faster and you’ll have a much better chance at being approved.”
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